Lately, the 2020 election reminds me less of the collective trauma that was 2016 and more of the first presidential contest I experienced as a voter: the 2004 race between an incumbent and much-reviled Republican, George W. Bush, and a Democratic hopeful, John Kerry, senator from Massachusetts. After primary frontrunner Howard Dean weird-screamed his way out of contention, Kerry easily sailed to the party’s nomination; commentators now believe that former Vice President Joe Biden, with a string of victories in the past few weeks, is building likewise unstoppable momentum.
The polling swing toward Biden is probably the fastest in the history of the primaries.
We have him gaining 36.2 points in national polls over the past 14 days. The previous record is John Kerry, who gained 32.3 points from 1/21 to 2/24/04 in our retrospective national average.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 10, 2020
There really are two modern Dem races where everyone had dropped out and the party united behind one candidate by this point: 2000 with Al Gore and 2004 with John Kerry. All other modern races had at least two candidates competing to the end of the primary season.
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) March 11, 2020
1. Biden is now a formidable frontrunner, enjoying a kind of lead not seen since John Kerry in 2004. Given that, it's worth asking who he'll need to win over if he's the nominee. One big weakness is the young. He's lost under 30 in all states & often under 45. https://t.co/RzJFM6qbB3
— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) March 11, 2020
You notice the parallels are not necessarily good news. I can tell you that as a college sophomore in the middle of the Bush regime, three years after 9/11, the country deep into twin invasions, I didn’t have any hope for Kerry’s safe, wooden style of campaigning. The 2000 election had been stolen, and I saw no reason it wouldn’t be again, whether through legal shenanigans or outright smears. I cringed at his uninspiring speeches and dreaded the day I would have to mail an absentee ballot with his name selected — my introduction to democratic duty just a symbolic swipe at a dumbass head of state I hated with all the passion of youth. What a waste, I thought.
He lost. That's the story
— jon rosenberg: comics boy? (@jonrosenberg) March 11, 2020
After Bush won, the campus had its day of mourning, and I, too, luxuriated in the fine disappointment that is the birthright of self-identifying Democrats. But while I figured this to be within a pattern sure to repeat itself ad nauseam (my dad loves recounting all the losers he’s voted for in his life), it didn’t occur to me that the party base’s risk-averse attitude would, in time, produce increasingly weaker “safe” choices for president — Hillary Clinton, compromised from all angles, and now Biden, whose own supporters can’t name two of his policies. Through the prism of that history, Kerry looks like a firmer, not-so-embarrassing challenger. That the GOP had to attack him for his service record (Kerry was a decorated Navy veteran of the Vietnam War, and more than willing to condemn war crimes committed by U.S. forces there) was itself a measure of his formidable background. He also faced mockery for windsurfing. But, like… why?
We Stan These Gams pic.twitter.com/3CX1n7DGFP
— Kleeware the Ides of March ? (@MilesKlee) May 31, 2019
Democrats can only dream of such a vigorous photo-op for the Biden, whose fitness, mental and otherwise, is already the target of Trumpworld attacks. Likewise, where Kerry was perceived as the clear victor in his debates with Bush, a night of Biden trying to finish a single sentence while Trump talks over him, unchecked by moderators, is frighteningly plausible. Progressives may detest the centrist politics of a Kamala Harris as much as Biden’s, but you have to admit that she’d be a stronger and more persuasive voice if — as the #Resistance bloc would argue — your sole objective is to beat the bad orange man.
Kerry was no agent of radical change, either on the stump or in his tenure as Secretary of State under Obama, yet he held basically decent liberal positions on gun control, abortion, immigration, LGBT rights and environmental impact. His incrementalism brought us to the Iran nuclear deal, and he signed the Paris Agreement on climate change, two accords Trump couldn’t wait to unravel.
Here's the video of Obama: https://t.co/cR7ecYzsNE
— David Smiley (@NewsbySmiley) March 9, 2020
None of this should allow us to forget — as the above statement reminds us — that Kerry fundamentally sucks. He’s ultra-wealthy, and he has always worked within the gears of a system that continues to fail Americans. All the same, he’s a relic of an age before Democrats took the mask off, and that may account for some confusing nostalgia on our part. However goofy and out-of-touch he was, he didn’t tell voters, straight to their faces, to fuck off forever. He was capable, at the very least, of reaching out to young people — instead of publicly writing them off as whiny and entitled.
Neither his cautious ideology nor statesmanship will be remembered in the long run — his 2004 defeat was an awful thing to endure (and we still haven’t learned any lesson from it) — and even so, you’re left to wonder if he wasn’t the best hope in a sad line of similarly doomed candidates. Someone without excess baggage or scandals, and with an adequate grasp of words and issues. Someone it wasn’t humiliating to watch in the ring.
Clinton got hammered on mass incarceration, Iraq War, NAFTA, and "the swamp." Biden has the same issues and is even less popular among young voters (who Obama needed to win). It's not that Bernie voters don't care about beating Trump, it's that we don't think Biden can.
— Kate Willett (@katewillett) March 11, 2020
Congrats to Democrats for finding a nominee Max Boot, Ana Navarro, Evan McMullen, Tim Miller, David Frum, Jennifer Rubin, Meghan McCain, William Kristol and tens of other Republicans are comfortable with. I hope they are planning on phone banking and canvassing for Joe Biden. pic.twitter.com/C77rne0Cbc
— ? Clark aka “The Other Biden” (@Clarknt67) March 11, 2020
"yeah so this guy, well he's not Trump and we all want to beat that guy, right? policies? like policies you can rally behind? hm well I think I mentioned we all want to beat Trump and he is not him."
— ashley ray (@theashleyray) March 11, 2020
Of course, Kerry has already endorsed and started campaigning for Biden, because that’s how this works. Anything else would be a grave disloyalty to the machine that once elevated him to the status of a presidential contender. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, to hear that his enthusiasm is dulled by disbelief at how the qualifications for establishment standard-bearer have softened since his White House bid. It used to be that selling out and phoning it in was almost an art. Now they can’t even fake that much.